It consists of kelly divided by max loss. If only one of them is in your favor, it must more than offset the other, i. Pro members have access to our expert models. Now that you have W and R, you are ready to calculate Kelly percentage number: Kelly percentage number = 0. Enter your Email below to Download Free Historical Data for Nikkei 225 and Economic Data for 120,000+ Macroeconomic Indicators and Market Data covering Stocks, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies & Financial Indices of 150 countries in Excel or via. For example, your bank is 10,000 rubles. The Kelly Criteria is an interesting thing to play with. The most used example is, flipping a coin where every time you call it correctly, you will get 2 to 1. The Kelly bet is popular among big investors, including Berkshire Hathaway's Warren. Kelly. Search for jobs related to Kelly criterion lay calculator or hire on the world's largest freelancing marketplace with 22m+ jobs. Using the Kelly Criterion, you can now work out how much of your bankroll to bet on Lucky Punter. Once you understand each wager's anticipated winning per cent, you may utilise this betting strategy to make informed sports betting decisions. The goal of the equation is this: don’t go broke. R: Number of streaks in the series. Author: Christian Baier Last modified by: Christian Baier Created Date: 3/12/2020 1:01:27 PM Other titles: selections acca-2 acca-3 acca-4 acca-5 acca-6John Larry Kelly, Jr. 00, with a winning probability of 0. , There's a section in it that uses the Kelly Formula. Therefore, your probability is . 00 (~6 MB) This file is based on the standard betting tracker. History of the. RoR can be calculated using the formula: Here’s an example: Suppose I have a $10000 account and I decide to risk 30% of it. 50 10% chance of losing it all Using the Kelly Formula calculator, Pabrai stated I should bet $8,940 or 89. We’ve developed a Kelly Criterion formula Excel spreadsheet that you can download here. The Kelly Criterion is a formula used to calculate bet sizes for people looking to make a sustainable profit over the long term. As with the Kelly formula, optimal f position sizing is included primarily for educational purposes. A Kelly Criterion sports betting calculator can be used to manage your sports betting bankroll and determine optimal bet sizing. This means if the Kelly Criterion advises a bet at 10% of your bankroll, if you’re using 1/2 Kelly it would be 5%, 1/4 2. A = 70% – 30% = 40% = 0. How to use the Kelly Criterion to decide how much of your. Odds betting tool that uses the Kelly Criterion FormulaThe Kelly Criterion is a technique to maximize long term wealth, when presented with an opportunity that has favorable odds. Trade Management Talk Risk and Rewards hereKelly criterion mathematical formula. Kelly Criterion. The Kelly Criterion is well-known among gamblers as a way to decide how much to bet when the odds are in your favor. 00 10% chance of winning $7. The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that helps gamblers determine optimal bet sizes and maximize profits. 200+ Video Lessons. 5% win rate. 01. To calculate the “W,” divide the number of trades that brought in a. 1 Main Idea In the gambling game we just described, the gambling probability and payo per bet do not change, and thus, from an intuitive stand-point, it would make sense that an optimal solution would bet the same fraction, f, of your money for every trial. The Kelly Criterion is a relatively simple math equation to determine the percentage of your bankroll you should bet on any given circumstance, assuming you have an advantage. The Kelly Criterion (a. Thus, the Kelly Criterion suggests that the investor should bet 30% of their bankroll on Player 2. Attached Image (click to enlarge) With the formula: N: Total trades number. Kelly system betting provides an objective answer on how to make your bankroll grow as fast as possible. In relation to sports betting, it’s. Explore math with our beautiful, free online graphing calculator. Last updated: 2022-08-27T07:09:31. With offerings for Moneyline and Totals for the NHL, NBA, MLB, and most major soccer leagues. Thus, the Kelly Criterion suggests that the investor should bet 30% of their bankroll on Player 2. The Kelly’s formula is : Kelly % = W – (1-W)/R where: Kelly % = percentage of capital to be put into a single trade. Jan 11 21, 15:44 GMT. 03 takes that 95% 95 % probability of $250 $ 250 and the other 5% 5 % spread across lower possible outcomes so it is not a surprise that is slightly smaller than the cap. RoR can be calculated using the formula: Here’s an example: Suppose I have a $10000 account and I decide to risk 30% of it. If you're having trouble understanding a math problem, try. Handicappers can choose from a huge range of tools. The steps to use Kelly Criterion are the following: Step 1: Calculate W. To use it: First select the number of simultaneous bets to consider. The Kelly formula is: Kelly % = P - [ (1 - P) : R] As an example, let's say one has won 40 out of 100 trades and the total win is €6,000 while the total losses are €2,000. I was thinking of creating a spreadsheet to help me at the track but why do that if someone already has this. How To Make Your Own Kelly Calculator In Excel. Bettors can also modify the Kelly formula to suit their needs and tolerance to risk. It was proposed by John Kelly in the 50’s who at that point was working for AT&T’s Bell Laboratories. 75] ÷ 4 = 0. 6, and its probability of losing is 0. . 13 Open a new Excel spreadsheet and create the following headers: Betting Bankroll, Kelly Staking Fraction, 1 (outcome 1), 2 (outcome 2), Odds 1, Odds 2, Probability of 1, Probability of 2, Kelly Stake 1 and Kelly Stake 2. Only adjust the cells that are green. For sports bettors, the Kelly Criterion sports betting strategy is capable of maximizing potential profit, while minimizing both volatility and threat. Vegapit. Read William Hill Review. 80 to 1. Then click the centre align button to ensure all data is displayed in the centre of their cells. We advise you to set it at 0. Code IssuesThe Kelly Criterion is a strategy for determining theal bet size in relation to your bankroll and perceived edge. ,跳到 How To Make Your Own Kelly Calculator In Excel? - Creating your own Kelly staking calculator in an Excel spreadsheet is fairly simple. Kelly Criterion Calculator. Calculate the relationship between risk and return R. 1 is considered "full Kelly" and is the default for our calculations. Your stake sizes will adjust as you are using the kelly criterion, so a 7. SBR provides a full range of free sports betting calculators to help you find great value, manage your bankroll and generate an overall profit. 2. Value bet or value is a bet on an underestimated event, when the probability of. The Kelly Criterion is the brilliant summation of a betting strategy first discovered by Information Theorist John Kelly. The formula was derived by J. Results The odds are in your favor, but read the following carefully: According to the Kelly criterion your optimal bet is about 5. portfolio strategy is using the Kelly criterion to calculate how much you are willing to invest in an asset. The Kelly Criterion is a formula which accepts known probabilities and payoffs as inputs and outputs the proportion of total wealth to bet in order to achieve the maximum growth rate. To determine a game’s variance, we take the. So the calculation is as follows: (1 × 0. The Kelly Criterion is a formula which accepts known probabilities and payoffs as inputs and outputs the proportion of total wealth to bet in order to achieve the maximum growth rate. function is to create the right balance between risk and reward. Excel and briefly R are used to show how the Kelly criterion is. For an even money bet, the Kelly criterion computes the wager size percentage by multiplying the percent chance to win by two, then subtracting one. In its most basic form, the Kelly strat-egy states that one should invest a fraction equal to the ratio of the expected return to the winning return [1]. Secure F0dwkhpdwlfdo ([shfwdwlrq lq )xwxuhv 7udglqj $ vxffhvvixo wudglqj vvwhp qhhgv wr kdyh d srvlwlyh 0dwkhpdwlfdo ([shfwdwlrq ru d vwdwlvwlfdo hgjh lq rughu iru lw wr kdyh d fkdqfh wr eh surilwdeoh lq wkh uhdo zruog ,w fdq ehFootball betting stats & predictions | OddsWizz. It's very easy to do this with the following: A predefined profit target for every trade A predefined stop loss for every trade. The calculation depends on whether the implied probability is above 50% or below. Conclusion. ) Trading full kelly is VERY VOLATILE. I assume that with multiple bets at a correlation of 1 I would divide the Kelly by the number of bets. The Kelly Criterion is a popular staking method which suggests that your stake should be proportional to the perceived edge. Calculadora de critério de Kelly é uma ferramenta para encontrar o tamanho ideal do investimento para retornos máximos em investimentos repetidos, quando conhecer as probabilidades e os retornos do investimento. The spreadsheet. * f* is the fraction of the current bankroll to wager; * b is the odds received on the wager; * p is the probability of winning; * q is the probability of losing, which is 1 − p. ‘MY_ODDS’ is what you consider to be the fair odds. Most sources provide coverage only…In essence, the Kelly Criterion calculates the proportion of your own funds to bet on an outcome whose odds are higher than expected, so that your own funds grow exponentially. The Kelly Formula is: Kelly % = W – (1-W)/R where: * Kelly % = percentage of capital to be put into a single trade. This gives us a Sharpe Ratio of S = 0. I want to calculate the Kelly bet for an event with more than two possible outcomes. Sportsbettingcalcs is a collection of software to assist with sports betting. Here, we determine our ideal bet size (f) by dividing our edge by the game’s variance. The job requires integrating sample data provided by me and configuring the spreadsheet to automatically update and calculate optimal stake amounts based on this data. The formula was developed by Kelly while working at the AT&T Bell. . The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that helps investors and gamblers calculate what percentage of their money they should allocate to each investment or bet. Here’s. Kelly Criterion Calculator is a tool for finding the optimal investment size to maximize profits on repeated investments. It's free to sign up and bid on jobs. ,跳到 How To Make Your Own Kelly Calculator In Excel? - Creating your own Kelly staking calculator in an Excel spreadsheet is fairly simple. Mathematically, if you want to raise your capital to a number which is approaching to infinity, Kelly Criterion can bring you there in the shortest time. Lucro esperado no ganho : Insira a. How To Make Your Own Kelly Calculator In Excel. Use fractional Kelly. The calculator will multiply this number by the account balance you specify to yield a recommended stake. According to the formula, you would not make a bet if f 0. We’ll stick with a simple market that has just two outcomes. The Kelly Criterion Talk to most successful gamblers and one of the fundamental factors which they believe separates them from losing punters is money management. 4 The Kelly Criterion 4. 75 -x) +2x = 5. Excel Betting Tools BetGPS. Do not include any currency symbols. It was described by J. How To Choose The kelly criterion calculator excel Best suited Bookmaker Presently online casinos kick off several attractive plans to construct up their buyer foundation. Make sure to open both GlobalMinimize and the Real Kelly worksheet. We’ve developed a Kelly Criterion formula Excel spreadsheet that you can download here. This formula determines the optimal % of your account that you can bet to get the most profitable outcome in the long run. The Kelly Criterion is a popular staking method which suggests that your stake should be proportional to the perceived edge. Under few conditions, using Monte Carlo simulations with different scenarios. Scala. So, for a bet with a 70% chance to win the optimal wager size is 40% of available funds. We then lo. The Kelly Criterion gives an optimal result for betting based on the probability of winning a bet and how much you receive for winning. Kelly Criterion Calculator - Know Your Stakes Quickly - Kelly Criterion determines how much of a stake you should risk on a favorable bet, is a popular staking method which suggests that your stake should be proportional to the perceived edge. The expected return from a winning outcome. 8% stake really just means you are betting 7. where. You have $1,000 with you. 13Open a new Excel spreadsheet and create the following headers: Betting Bankroll, Kelly Staking Fraction, 1 (outcome 1), 2 (outcome 2), Odds 1, Odds 2, Probability of 1, Probability of 2, Kelly Stake 1 and Kelly Stake 2. Reasons to use Kelly Criterion as a bankroll management strategy. Here’s. The purpose of the Kelly criterion in investing is to see how much money you should put into a single trade. With offerings for Moneyline and Totals for the NHL, NBA, MLB, and most major soccer leagues. I want to use the Kelly criterion to figure out the optimal % of wealth to bet on this call option. The equation tells you exactly how much to bet on each “hand” so that you can survive to keep playing. The expected value of a $100 bet on Rams +110 is equal to $5, as seen in the calculator. 4. 50 = (1-0. It could be done in Excel. The Kelly Criterion is a purely mathematical system, and should be able to be tested to see if it is profitable in the long run. Calculates Kelly stakes for bets on up to either 15 simultaneous betting events or 15 mutually exclusive outcomes of a single event. Kelly is a very aggressive investment. I've been working on the formula to bet kelly criterion when multiple games are playing at the same time. More precisely, for the case of one stock modelled with geometric Brownian motion, one obtains a Kelly frac-Also know as a lay bet calculator. In my recent article The Real Kelly – an #excel implementation for mutually exclusive outcomes I described how to use excel to find optimal bet sizes for a set of mutually exclusive outcomes applying the generalised Kelly Criterion (a. With. Set all stakes to 0. It also provides the corresponding formula for a lay bet. The Kelly Criterion is a strategy that can be used in several. 40. In the NFL, you think the San Francisco 49ers have a 60% chance of beating the Seahawks and are happy to bet on them at odds of 1. . In Section 3, we develop modi ed Kelly. Works quite well in many ways, but has serious limitations when used for trading. Here’s the Excel instructions for creating a little worksheet like the one in the figure that will help you determine the recommended Kelly bet size Kelly Criterion Excel Spreadsheet. Kelly Criterion Calculator: Calculate how much of your bankroll you should be based on the probability of winning an outcome. You have to remember that the basic Kelly Criterion formula is meant to optimize bets for black-and. You have $1,000 with you. Works quite well in many ways, but has serious limitations when used for trading. However, in real life this is hardly ever the case that a. The Kelly criterion model works off a precise winning percentage. E. The Kelly bet size is found by maximizing the expected geometric growth rate. Kelly is a very aggressive investment. The below formula is for multiple games at the same time. When my web page is up the spreadsheet will be available. The formula is as follows: Kelly Formula . (For example, if you have a 40% win rate, then enter the number "40", not 0. Use a helpful Kelly Criterion calculator for any bet. Place a second bet based upon the Kelly of the remaining capital. The Kelly criterion, developed by John L. Unsurprisingly, the volatility or variance in the evolution of the bankroll is greatest for full-Kelly and least for eighth-Kelly. Expected value and Kelly criterion calculations done automatically to help you make the best decision. g. Kelly is made for known outcomes such as coin flips, table games, etc. The Real Kelly – an #excel implementation for mutually exclusive outcomes – BettingIsCool. In another example, you may have a perceived edge of 55% (0. Learn how to make high probability bets and make income at the link below"WELCOME20" to get $20 off your first month!Kelly Crite. but it's probably something I'm overthinking. In a previous article, we looked into how the Kelly criterion could be solved numerically in the case of multiple simultaneous and independent bets. 3% before) and Utah should win the game 37. 3. Ultimately, the Kelly Criterion formula calculates the perceived edge you have. 300. 0003%. 1:1 odds 0. Thus, the Kelly Criterion suggests that the investor should bet 30% of their bankroll on Player 2. The idea was derived from an American scientist John L. 4. p is the probability of the bet winning. Excel and briefly R are used to show how the Kelly criterion is effective. 'winP' in the expected winning probability of this particular bet. Which I assume you can not. Search for jobs related to Kelly criterion calculator excel or hire on the world's largest freelancing marketplace with 23m+ jobs. Kelly Jr in 1956 that determines the optimal risk per trade for a trading strategy or betting system with a positive edge. 55 for an ROI of 14. The second is the total win loss ratio, which is made up of the total number of winning trades divided by the total number of losing trades. It emerged from statistical work done by John Kelly at Bell Laboratories in the 1950s. Home / Betting Calculators / Kelly Calculator. e. It is best suited as a risk and money management tool. If a fully Kelly stake was 8%, then the half-, quarter- and eighth-Kelly stakes would be 4%, 2% and 1% respectively. Kelly Calculator The Kelly Criterion is a famous formula developed by its name-sake John Kelly Jr and is used by many a handicapper and blackjack player. The Kelly criterion is a special betting system that is used exclusively for blackjack card counting. The Kelly bet size is found by maximizing the expected value of the logarithm of wealth, which is equivalent to maximizing the expected. Kelly % = trading capital to use in one trade. Kelly Criterion works much better in systems where there is an average of positive dependence streaks: winning trades will be followed by winning trades and losing trades will be followed by losing trades. It was found that the formula, which has a gambling background and helps to determine the optimal bet size, can also help with finding the ideal investment size. e. The Kelly criterion or formula will help one understand how to size their investment positions according to one’s edge. 67%. Works best when used in retrospect. B – payout on the bet. 890. This is precisely what Kelly-promoters choose to ignore. 124 2 = 5. It is an effective way. . In this case, the Kelly criterion calculator tells you to risk 10% of your bankroll on this wager. This calculator is the implementation of the blog post Numerically solve Kelly criterion for multiple simultaneous bets. . ‘MY_ODDS’ is what you consider to be the fair odds. Global Rank. Insert the number of events or exclusive outcomes. This means if the Kelly Criterion advises a bet at 10% of your bankroll, if you’re using 1/2 Kelly it would be 5%, 1/4 2. A = 70% – 30% = 40% = 0. The Kelly bet size is found by maximizing the expected value of the logarithm of wealth, which is equivalent to maximizing the expected geometric growth rate. Unlike our standard Excel betting tracker, this worksheet calculates recommended stakes using four different staking plans: level stakes, percentage stakes, square root stakes and the Kelly criterion. 00 (~6 MB) This file is based on the standard betting tracker. When it grasps the winning chances, the probability of ruin is very low. The Kelly Criterion. Assuming the anticipated wager has odds of 3. The closer to 1 you get, the better. And you have the choice of taking an insurance or not. In Section 2, we review the necessary terminology and foundations of sports gambling. 5% to 2% of your bankroll per bet. With this we can calculate the optimal Kelly leverage via f = μ / σ 2 = 0. Stake on to this formula kelly criterion calculator determines a way i do not be using the kelly staking method for the gamble. 50) =. The Kelly Criterion is a relatively simple math equation to determine the percentage of your bankroll you should bet on any given circumstance, assuming you have an advantage. 1. Probabilidade de ganhar : Insira a probabilidade de obter lucro com seu investimento. Simply input your betting bankroll, the odds on offer, your assessed probability for that outcome occurring and your Kelly fraction. Kelly's criterion whereKelly betting can be applied to Blackjack with a high degree of certainty in the calculated probabilities. . The issue that I’m running into is that I don’t have the probability of every possible return. What is the Kelly Criterion? Kelly criterion is a mathematical formula for bet sizing, which is frequently used by investors to decide how much money they should allocate to each. Kelly Criterion. Home. Real Estate. Usually, the bigger your edge on the odds the more you should bet but Kelly also takes into account the real chance of that bet winning and Kelly would advise a smaller bet for a 5% edge at even money (2. The Kelly criterion is designed for making ‘back’ bets. e. To maximise your outcome try to bet on events which have the closest odds at the bookie and exchange, for example betting Arsenal to win a match at 2. Individual Income. One very important criteria, your trading system must have a Positive Expectancy and a minimum of 100 historical trades (see the Expectancy Tool). Following this formula, it’s calculated that you stake 80% of your bankroll on the proposed bet. Only adjust the cells that are green. 3. 5 for long-term wagering. simply lose , I'm trying to implement the Kelly criterion for multiple exclusive outcomes. 71% of your capital, or $57. 62. Our accumulator calculator quickly calculates the total odds for your accumulator. there must be a positive expected return. For obvious reasons, if your sports betting bankroll is, say, $5,000, you should not stake it all on one bet, regardless of how great you think the bet is. 890. F = ( (1. Many well known investors use it, including Warren Buffett and Bill Gross. Trade Management Talk Risk and Rewards hereFor a strategy with an equal stop loss and profit target (1-to-1 odds in gambling), and a 60% win rate, the Kelly criterion produces an optimal bet size of 20% of your account. Your 'odds offered' are '2 to 1' (so enter 2 ). Minnis. The formula calculates the ideal sum you should stake on any bet, helping minimise your risk and maximise your profits in the long term. 53)/0. Enter the odds for each bet option and the Kelly calculator will tell you the implied win probability, or the edge. as I said, I only do 2 tables at most, so its not a problem. WITH KELLY. 2 Ratings. So we will place $500 * 0,003888889 for this bet So we will have 1000. Kelly Criterion Calculator is a tool for finding the optimal investment size. Bet £10 get £30 (credited as 2 x £15 bets) Highly competitive odds; Create your own bets for the highest value!. * R = Historical Average Win/Loss ratio. The calculator will tell you whether or not you should be betting and how much to stake. 2, bank roll: $500 Example: with p = 53%, odd = 0. The Kelly Criterion is a money management formula that calculates the amount you should bet when there is a difference between the “true” odds and the given odds. Kelly Criterion Calculator Excel. I start trading a mean reversion strategy with a 70% win rate, and $200 risked per trade. If a fully Kelly stake was 8%, then the half-, quarter- and eighth-Kelly stakes would be 4%, 2% and 1% respectively. Kelly, who was a member of a research center at AT&T’s Bells Lab, New Jersey in 1956. Lay betting, commissions, refunds and fractional Kelly betting are. By using the Kelly Criterion, you can avoid the pitfalls of overbetting and underbetting and maximize your long-term profitability. These calculators give you the best calculations to show you the house edge in each game as well as the best play for each situation. Staking Plan Calculator and Betting Tracker v1. Thus, the Kelly Criterion suggests that the investor should bet 30% of their bankroll on Player 2. Kelly Criterion calculator | Desmos Example of the optimal Kelly betting fraction, versus expected return of other fractional bets. Make your sports betting experience easier with our acca calculator, calculate the total odds of your acca in any odds format!Object moved to here. Determine the Kelly multiplier you want to use. Big-time investors such as Warren Buffett and Bill Gross have recently revealed that they use the Kelly Criterion in their investment process. Home. Four staking plans are compared: full-Kelly, half-Kelly, quarter-Kelly and eighth-Kelly. . This is important to think about because imagine a scenario where you have a rigged coin toss that gives you a 60% chance to double your money instead of just a 50% chance to double your cash. 091 500:1 odds 0. This allows the sportsbook to take an expected profit on each event, which is known as vigorish, or vig. 5. The Kelly Calculator (or Kelly Criterion Calculator) can help a sports bettor decide how much of their bankroll to risk on a wager. . Despite not only a spreadsheet for kelly criterion, including without losing out what you have a formula is a wager. The Kelly Criterion is a formula used to bet a preset fraction of an account. Kelly Criterion in its pure. 5 for long-term wagering. g. When the implied probability is above 50%, we make the following calculation. I could try to calculate the probability of each 1 cent difference, then plug that into the kelly criterion but that introduces a lot of. By the way, I took you through the formulas just so you could get a sense of how changes in rake or winning percentage alter your optimal plays, but you can and should use a Kelly Criterion calculator. 5% of your bankroll. Winning Probability : Enter the probability of earning a profit from investment. In probability theory, the Kelly criterion (or Kelly strategy or Kelly bet) is a formula for sizing a bet. $egingroup$ +1, though usually the Kelly criterion is maximising the expectation of the logarithm of the outcomes; if the outcomes are equally likely and all positive then this is the same as maximising the product of outcomes $endgroup$ –The odds are 60/40 in your favour so only betting $1 is likely too conservative. 15 and laying the same outcome at 2. * W = Historical winning percentage of a trading system. A Kelly portfolio maximizes the expected return of any given combination of assets in the long run, by maximizing the geometric growth rate of the wealth, which can be expressed by: g_{infty}(f^*) = frac{(mu - r)^2}{2sigma^2} + rThe no-vig calculator essentially backs out the “fair” odds by backing out the 3. Kelly's criterion where Kelly betting can be applied to Blackjack with a high degree of certainty in the calculated probabilities. The trade risk is taken as the largest historical loss per unit. The formula is (Decimal odds of the wager * win probability – loss probability) / decimal odds of the wager. QuantitativeFinance. The Kelly Criterion is a formula used to determine the optimal size of your bets based on your edge and bankroll. To do so, create a Dabble account and download the App. Kelly came up with a betting system which optimizes bankroll growth based upon known odds and a definite payout. Mode 2: You know the sharp bookmaker odds and soft bookmaker odds. This is where the Kelly Criterion enters the picture. The goal of the equation is this: don’t go broke. 53-(1-0. 33). It's free to sign up and bid on jobs. Calculates Kelly stakes for bets on up to either 15 simultaneous betting events or 15 mutually exclusive outcomes of a single event. The trade calculator tells you how much your trade size should be based on your risk profile you specified to the left in the "Percent Bankroll used". In this case we bet about 9% of our money on each bet (slightly more for the higher implied. At +100 52. Arbitrage Calculator. 凱利公式、凱利方程、凱利判據、凱利策略（英語： Kelly criterion 、 Kelly strategy 、 Kelly bet ），是一種根据赌博赢或输的概率，计算出每次下注的资金占所有赌本的最佳比例的公式 ，由約翰·拉里·凱利於1956年在《 貝爾系統技術期刊 （ 英语 ： Bell. The Kalman Filter is used to. It's free to sign up and bid on jobs. 100:1 odds 0. For example, the ROI calculator would tell us that a $100 bet at -110 odds on an outcome that we think has a 60% chance of winning has an expected return of $114. The first of these is the probability of a positive outcome, or a winning trade. This method allows for the bettor optimize their bet size, while limiting their exposure to ruin (i. B = the Decimal odds -1 P = the probability of success Q = the probability of failure (i.